GENCO MEMO-6/19/2024: Obstacles, Options, Outcomes Framework
A simple O-O-O framework to find the moves in any problem-situation.
Imagine the following scene with me:
***
There he was–sitting at the conference table as I walked in.
His face couldn't hide that he'd spent the last four days in federal detention waiting to be released on bond.
I see it all the time–agents arrest a target on Friday, knowing they won't see a magistrate until Monday.
It creates a desired effect on the person–a taste of real fear.
And it worked here, too. Spending several nights in a concrete cell and the federal indictment were pressing down–it was heavy, and he was suffocating.
"Where do we even start?" he asked.
I leaned back, keeping my tone calm and steady.
"First, take a breath. We're going to break this down. Right now, it feels like too much–overwhelming–but there's a way through this."
"How? It's impossible," he said, barely holding back the tinge of panic.
"It only seems that way," I said, leaning forward.
"But we're going to map out everything and we’ll see the moves. Chasing shadows isn't going to solve this problem. We need to give it form–see it on paper."
He raised an eyebrow, "Alright. I trust you."
I moved a long, blank sheet of paper between us. I drew two lines from top to bottom, making three equal columns.
I wrote "obstacles" at the top of the first column, "options" at the top of the middle column, and "outcomes" at the top of the last column.
"Ok. First, we will write down all the obstacles," I explained. "Every single thing that's standing in your way. We lay it all out, no matter how small it seems."
"And then?" he asked.
"Then we list out the options," I said. "We think of every possible action we can take. We look at all of them."
He nodded slowly, absorbing the information. "And after that?"
"We predict the outcomes," I continued, eyes locking onto his. "We look at the potential results of each option. We weigh the pros and cons as if we're planning a high-stakes mission.
Because that is what it is–the biggest mission of your life. Understand?"
He leaned back, a flicker of hope starting to show on his face. "Yeah. It sounds...doable."
He sighed, the tension in his shoulders easing slightly. "Alright. Let's do this."
End scene.
Scenes like this play out in my office in endless variations but always within the same framework.
My client faces a situation that seems impossible to overcome. They feel overwhelmed. Some even give up.
That's when I use this simple O-O-O framework. It defaults to action and brings abstract thoughts of obstacles, options, and outcomes into a tangible form. Something we can work with.
This is the method I use for some very complex situations, and it doesn't involve complicated strategies or costly solutions.
I’ll explain exactly how it works.
Brief side note: Here’s how not to handle the situation–although it’s how many do.
Ok, now to the framework.
Obstacles, Options, Outcomes: A Simple Framework
Materials: To start all you need is a sheet of paper and a pen.
Yes, that's it.
Preparation: You're going to draw three equal columns and write "obstacles," "options," and "outcomes" at the top of each one. One for each column, and in that order.
It should look something like this.
And now you're ready.
So, let's begin.
Step 1: Identify Obstacles
First, we need to lay everything out on the table.
List every challenge, every roadblock. Lack of resources? Time constraints? Difficult people?
Write it all down.
Even minor details can be the key to unlocking the situation.
This is an evolving task. When you identify new issues or concerns, you write them down. The point is to make it concrete on paper, so that your mind no longer has to keep it in your limited memory.
You are freeing up brain-space to do more creative thinking–making connections, exploring possibilites.
Step 2: Explore Options
Next, we brainstorm.
Looking at each of these obstacles, think of every possible action we can take, no matter how unconventional it might seem.
This can be a defensive response to what an opponent or situation is throwing at you.
Or an offensive move to take the initiative in the situation.
In my experience, the wildest and boldest ideas often lead to the most effective solutions.
Imagine each idea is a door in a long hallway, leading to different possibilities.
This is the image I have in mind.
It reminds me of Jeff Bezos and his concept of one-way and two-way doors.
One-way doors are decisions that you can’t walk back. You are committed to the decision. These are the big decisions that permanently cut-off all other options and set you along a definite path.
Two-way doors are decisions where you can change your mind and walk back out into the hallway and try another door. These are the smaller decisions we come across in life.
More than anything, you need to learn how to tell the difference between the two.
Here is a clip of Jeff Bezos explaining this idea.
Step 3: Predict Outcomes
Finally, we look ahead.
We ask ourselves, what happens if we choose one path over another?
We weigh the pros and cons.
Imagine it's like planning a strategy for a high-stakes chess game. Every move counts. My oldest son likes to say, “You’re playing 4-D Chess.”
Think of it like having a crystal ball. Predicting outcomes allows you to see the many possible futures and make choices that align with the ones you’re aiming for.
Here’s my favorite movie scene that I have in mind when I'm doing this part.
Inspiration For This Methodology
Now, I’m not the only one writes down obstacles, options, or outcomes for practical analysis.
It's a method used by some of the most influential figures in government to navigate complex and high-stakes decisions.
Two books in my library give two good examples of this practice.
This first is Donald Rumsfeld in his book, “Rumsfeld’s Rules.”
The second in Robert Rubin in his book, “The Yellow Pad.”
If you don’t have a chance to read these books, I’ll give you the gist.
Donald Rumsfeld's Approach: "Rumsfeld's Rules"
Let’s look at Donald Rumsfeld first.
In his book, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld emphasized the importance of clarity and structured thinking.
One of Rumsfeld’s key strategies involved writing down options and outcomes to make informed decisions.
He believed that by listing every possible action and its potential consequences, one could better anticipate challenges and opportunities, thereby making more effective decisions.
Here is an excerpt that best describes his thinking:
Robert Rubin's "Yellow Pad" Method
Similarly, Robert Rubin, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, would use a yellow legal pad to jot down all the potential outcomes when faced with a difficult decision.
Rubin's approach was based on his background in finance, where weighing risks and rewards was crucial.
By meticulously writing down his thoughts, he could visually map out the landscape of his decision, ensuring that no detail was overlooked.
Here’s a quote from the book:
My Modification of Their Methodology
Drawing inspiration from Rumsfeld and Rubin, I have adapted their methodologies into a simplified and actionable framework suitable for various contexts, from personal decisions to business challenges.
My approach—Identify Obstacles, Explore Options, and Predict Outcomes—mirrors their structured thinking but is tailored to be more accessible and practical for everyday use.
I like to think in threes and I added the “obstacles” part to make the analysis more robust.
I find it more comprehensive and practical for solving real problems.
This is not theoretical or some complex idea that is too complicated to put to use.
The practice of writing down obstacles, options, and outcomes has proven invaluable as I navigate some very complex situations for clients. And it has the effect of calming everyone down and focusing on moving the ball forward.
Adopting and modifying these approaches to suit you can harness the same clarity and strategic thinking in your decision-making processes.
I know it seems simple, but I promise you it works.
Whether you write down all three O’s or just one or two, the key takeaway is this: Put it on paper (or an iPad for those of you more suited to that).
That is all.
Have a great rest of your week.